India on track to achieve $1 trillion exports this year if current pace continues: CEA Nageswaran

**CEA Signals $1 Trillion Export Target**

India's Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran, has indicated that the country could reach or surpass $1 trillion in exports in the current financial year, provided trade maintains its present momentum. Speaking at the ISID-IDRA Fourth National Conference, he noted that merchandise trade stood at roughly $480 billion during the first six months, and that sustaining this run rate would keep the full-year target within reach.

**Why It Matters For Businesses**

The CEA linked the export ambition to domestic manufacturing strength and industrial competitiveness, particularly as global supply chains remain disrupted. He argued that government support should be tied to measurable outcomes, specifically export performance or the ability to match import prices. In his view, industry should offer a quid pro quo in return for protection, and support should be time-bound, performance-linked and withdrawn once domestic capacity becomes competitive. He also warned that protection without productivity investment could erode industrial resilience, a signal worth noting for businesses that rely on tariff or incentive support.

**Macro Indicators And Trade Gap**

Nageswaran cited first-quarter real GDP growth of 7.8 per cent for 2026-27, manufacturing gross value-added growth of 9.2 per cent, and gross fixed capital formation growth of 11.9 per cent. At the same time, manufacturing's share of gross value added stayed nearly flat at 14.8 per cent in 2025-26, against 14.7 per cent in 2022-23. He also flagged that core merchandise imports rose 19.7 per cent year-on-year during April-September 2026, outpacing core export growth of 16.2 per cent. Geopolitical tensions and supply-side disruptions, he said, have made domestic capacity and reliable access to critical resources more important, underscoring the need to build buffers of essential commodities and strengthen India's ability to supply global markets.

**What To Watch Next**

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